At 7 am the air is still, by lunchtime a northerly lifts dust off the paddocks and smoke plumes start to show on the horizon. December has that switch-like quality in Australia, and the difference between a busy week and a catastrophe often comes down to how quickly carriers and brokers read the signals and act on them.
The national picture points to a hot, long season, with the Bureau’s climate outlooks showing a strong chance of above median temperatures that keep fuels cured and crews fatigued.
AFAC’s Seasonal Bushfire Outlook maps the regions where risk is higher than normal so resources and customer messaging can be targeted before the first severe fire day.
Hot nights, volatile drivers, fast-curing fuels
Forecasters are dealing with an unusual tug of war between a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole, a developing La Niña and record-warm coastal waters, a mix that complicates rainfall timing while keeping heat potential high. ABC
Spring outlooks flagged elevated fire potential across parts of Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria, which often carry through to early summer when grass and scrub cure.
For claims teams, the translation is practical. Expect rapid shifts from damp intervals to explosive drying, which drive grassfire runs on urban fringes and along transport corridors, then plan assessor rosters and builder availability accordingly. Insurance industry coverage has already warned of heightened seasonal risk in parched regions, which is a useful cross-check when setting surge posture.
Why houses fail in bushfires, and why that matters for scope
Loss is rarely random. Decades of research show three main mechanisms of building impact, direct flame contact, radiant heat and ember attack, with ember attack frequently the dominant pathway to house ignition.
CSIRO field work and post-event assessments also highlight house-to-house ignition where spacing is tight and debris accumulates in gutters, vents and underfloor spaces.
For assessors this changes the inspection list. Photograph and sample ember entry points, check roof and wall cavity pathways, and separate direct fire impact from smoke and heat damage so rectification scopes are defensible and proportional.
What to watch in the first 48 hours of a heat pulse
- Grass exposure and interface suburbs. After wet growth, fuels cure quickly under heat and wind, which increases fast-moving grassfire risk on the metro fringe and in regional towns.
- Smoke and heat as multipliers. Even without flame contact, smoke ingress, HVAC contamination and prolonged heat can drive habitability and contents claims, so early HVAC isolation and targeted cleaning protocols matter.
- Wind change windows. Late afternoon changes can turn flank fires into head fires and expose new suburbs downwind, which should trigger proactive make-safe calls for glazing, roof flashings and temporary weatherproofing ahead of the next storm change.
Evidence standards that reduce disputes
Decision makers expect a clear brief, dated observations, method, and a scope that can be priced and supervised, the same evidentiary spine used for storm or flood. AFAC’s outlooks and the Bureau’s climate guidance provide the objective context that underwrites triage decisions, which is useful if a file escalates to complaint or external review.
Useful inclusions in a 48-hour assessment pack:
- Photos of ember entry points, guttering, eaves vents, subfloor voids and deck interfaces, plus plan mark-ups to show proximity to unburnt fuels.
- Materials and measurements that matter, such as melted seals, crazed glazing, warped flashings and smoke deposits in return-air plenums.
- A causation narrative that separates ember attack, radiant heat and direct flame, then links each to repair methods and hold points referenced to codes and product data.
Lessons that carry from past seasons
Australia’s second-hottest summer on record in 2024–25 shows how persistent heat sets the stage for difficult seasons even when rainfall is variable, which is why night-time temperatures and crew fatigue matter for scheduling safe site access.
Academic work continues to refine house loss models by combining weather danger indices with ember density, flame height and site context, which reinforces the need to map local fuel and slope when preparing rectification options.
What good looks like in December
- Proactive make-safe. Tarping, temporary flashing and isolation of damaged circuits reduce secondary loss from heat-stressed seals and smoke-exposed services.
- Comparable scopes. Use the same template across vendors, with defined tolerances and inspection hold points so apples-to-apples pricing is possible.
- Regional cadence. In country towns with limited trades, lead with essential services and building safety, then envelope, then interiors, and document each step for audit.
Bushfire seasons are never identical, but the ingredients of loss repeat. A volatile climate signal, hot nights, cured fuels and ember-driven ignition all point to the same playbook, fast, evidence-led assessments that separate mechanisms of damage, control leakage and keep customers safe and informed. The carriers that do this well tend to close files faster, fight fewer disputes and arrive at January with capacity left for whatever the wind brings next.